Wed, 11/17/2010 - 13:56

The Anatomy of a Point Guard

The other night, as we were walking out of the Amway Center, we started discussing Jameer Nelson. One person in the group thinks he's an awesome point guard, while the rest of us think heneeds great improvement, and there are many point guards out there who are much better. I personally believe, he turns the ball over too much, is too streaky, and sometimes he just scores too many points. Don't get me wrong, Jameer brings something to the Magic that no other could probably bring, and that's a huge heart. We're talking stats here, and unfortunately fire and passion are not statistics. In all my years playing the game, I was always taught that a point guard is there to create points, not score them. So, in my mind a point guard should average 10 points, 10 assists, and 1 turnover, all in 40 minutes.

This all got my mind racing, I wanted to see point guard ratings, similar to the quarterback ratings the NFL uses. I could find, player rankings to use when you are making your fantasy team, but I could not find a simple one. A rating system that tells me how true of a point guard someone is. So I made one up. Before we get into my mathematical genius, remember I'm not an NBA analyst (though I should be), I'm just a blogger and a pseudo-accountant. My formula is meant to see, per every minute on the court, how valuable a guy is to his team. Without further ado, my formula is as follows.

[ (assists per game / turnovers per game) (points per game) ] / minutes per game

For those who aren't math geeks like myself, phonetically speaking, you divide a players assists per game by their turnovers, multiply that number by their points per game, and then divide that whole number by their average minutes per game. So for my 'ideal' point guard, his rating would be [ (10/1) (10) ] / 40 = 2.5. My ideal point guard's ranking is 2.5, mind you that no one had a ranking that high. There was one guy who was close, and the second place guys is nowhere even near. According to my system no one in the league is the 'ideal' point guard, but one guy is pretty darn good. I know you're sitting there in suspense, so here are my personal rankings of the top 30 point guards, so far during this season.

1.) Chris Paul - 2.42

2.) Tony Parker - 1.87

3.) Beno Udrih - 1.66

4.) Steve Nash - 1.5

5.) Deron Williams - 1.47

5.) Derrick Rose - 1.47

7.) Rodney Stuckey - 1.44

8.) Devin Harris - 1.43

9.) Mo Williams - 1.41

10.) Russell Westbrook - 1.29

11.) Aaron Brooks - 1.25

12.) Jose Calderon - 1.22

13.) Andre Miller - 1.20

14.) Ty Lawson - 1.18

15.) Brandon Jennings - 1.13

15.) George Hill - 1.13

17.) Jameer Nelson - 1.12

18.) Stephen Curry - 1.04

18.) Rajon Rondo - 1.04

20.) John Wall - 1.03

21.) Jrue Holiday - 1.02

22.) Jason Kidd - 1.00

23.) Darren Collison - .96

24.) Raymond Felton - .95

25.) Mike Conley Jr. - .9

26.) Chauncey Billups - .7

27.) Gilbert Arenas - .59

28.) Luke Ridnour - .56

29.) Baron Davis - .55

30.) Mario Chalmers - .38

So there you have it, maybe I do want Chris Paul to come to Orlando. I'm sure there are other players who may have better rankings when using these categories, but this point guard rating is just for players who are listed in this position. Nobody is perfect, but the point guard slot is meant for someone with great basketball knowledge, who knows how to take care of the ball. I give all 30 of these guys props, they're in the NBA and I'm not. Coming from a family of point guards, and basketball coaches I was always taught you had to play smart, not flashy. If you were smarter than you're opponent and took care of the ball you would win the game, no matter how talented the other guy was. Where's Jerry West when you need him?

On a side note I would like to congratulate Joe Paterno on his 400th win last week with PennState. This is an accomplishment, that will probably never be met again. Guys these days just don't stay put in one school, they are always looking for something better. Luckily, Joe Paterno is always looking to better his players as men, and getting them ready to face the world without football. This is one of my favorite pictures I've ever seen. Jay Paterno (@JayPaterno) posted it on his Twitter, with the caption "these work shoes brought home 400 wins" Congrats Joe! You're the best! Once again you make us proud say WE ARE.....

Jameer Nelson photo courtesy of www.howardthedunk.com

Jerry West and Beno Udrih photos courtesy of www.nba.com

Joe Paterno picture courtesy of @JayPaterno

created by: LisaDrabic

This is a fantastic blog, really enjoyed reading it. I definitely think the "formula" is a bit flawed, but I like where you are going with it. My biggest problem is having someone like Steve Nash ranked so highly. He obviously is a fantastic player and an all-time great PG, however, your formula rewards him for playing fewer minutes and scoring more points, which shouldn't be the case, based on your initial logic. For someone like Nash to be ranked fourth with a 1.5 when Rajon Rondo is ranked is only 18th at 1.04. Nash averages: 9.6 assists and 3.7 turns, but scores over 19 a game in only 34 minutes, where as Rondo is dropping over 15 assists per game, with relatively the same amount of turns, yet he scores only around 11 and plays 41 minutes... so although his "true PG" numbers are so great, he gets penalized for playing more minutes and scoring less... Make sense?

Keep up the great work!

Submitted by Matt (not verified) on Wed, 11/17/2010 - 15:05.

A great point that you bring up is that Jameer has been known to "score too many points." When you initally see that you may think- what's wrong with that? But a point guard for the Magic needs to be more of a facilitator - given all of the perimater shooterts that we have, as well as the big mna down low.

Brilliant format. Maybe we'll see Jameer shape up, because he has all of the intangables of being a premier PG in the NBA, he just lacks "Star Power."

Submitted by PM (not verified) on Wed, 11/17/2010 - 15:23.

Love the article. Clearly you do you come from a family of SMART coaches and SMART pg's if you were brought up being taught that "If you're smarter than you're opponent and take care of the ball you would win the game."

The only thing I have against the rating system is that it's like the BCS, all numbers and not taking into account the little, unseen, not on the stat sheet things that players do. In addition, when any player joins a new team they have a different role. No one thought the Heat would be this crappy because of their talent. I think a point guard (being the QB on the court) must be your smartest player first and foremost. You want him handling the ball at all times making all of the right decisions. But each point guard takes on a different role on different teams. If Jameer had great wing men than I bet he would have a lot more assists. But I actually feel more confident when he drives the lane than when Carter does. Take Jon "Great" Wall of China. One of the top two atheltic pg's in the nba with drose imo. Granted he already has a triple double under his belt, but obviously with the supporting cast that he has, he must be a scorer as well as an assist man. So to end my hootin and hollerin, I love the formula you made, but it doesn't necessarily account for what role the player fills.

Submitted by Jordan Winter (not verified) on Wed, 11/17/2010 - 15:30.

i adore this article, even though I am the one who thinks 'meer needs more recognition. However, I think all of the Magic need "better" recognition. I feel like everyone in the NBA only focuses on our flaws and everyone elses strengths. #FAIL PM also pointed out that there are 48 min in an NBA game.

As for Rondo being lower than 'meer... are you ok with that? I actually think Rondo is an overall better PG than 'meer (flinching saying that) but I also think that when 'meer is challenged with playing against great PGs, he steps up.

I think you should do a monthly post on PGs in the NBA!

Submitted by ColleenBurns on Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:19.

Thank you so much for everyone's kind words and constructive criticism! It is MUCH appreciated.

Ever since I did this 'formula' I felt something was missing. Maybe steals per game? Rebounds? I don't really feel rebounds should be included because even though a rebounding point guard is great, it's not an expectation.

I was thinking when I did my 'ideal' point guard, I was giving him 2 minutes of rest per quarter. I guess though if he is perfect then he is probably an athletic machine and should be able to go all 48. So do you guys think the 'ratings' more accurate is everything was just divided by a flat 48? Matt, I totally get where you're coming from based on rewarding Nash for not being able to play as many minutes as the other guys.

Jordan, if anyone's comments are going to make me rack my brain to come up with a better formula it's going to be yours. I DESPISE the BCS it's a JOKE!!

Colleen, do I think Jameer is better than Rondo? You already know my feelings on this topic. :0) But the good thing about math is it's either right or wrong. So once we can come up with a true way of figuring this stuff out, I will accept whatever the numbers tell me. I was actually surprised while doing my research that Rajon averaged so many turnovers (almost 4). I also feel his assists per game are a little skewed because of his blow out assist game. But if he can keep that up, he's going to change all the record books.

I was thinking of re-rating everyone at the All-Star break, but if we want to watch the improvements from month-to-month we can do that too. Once we can come up with a more accurate way to figure this I will of course have to redo our 'base' rankings.

Thanks again everyone for your suggestions and comments! You guys ROCK!!!!

Submitted by LisaDrabic on Thu, 11/18/2010 - 13:40.

This is a fantastic blog, really enjoyed reading it.

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